Buckshot Roulette

Buckshot Roulette

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How to Win - Statistics Math Nerd to the Rescue
By Rosemagwin
General tips on how to play and how to take chances and minimise risk.
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This Guide
In this guide I will go over strategies and general practices in chance, which should help you to not get shot in the face a hundred times. Especially some details on items.

This is written with the singleplayer in mind (Normal and Double or Nothing mode), but most advice is also useful in multiplayer.
General Truths
Whilst some things are dependent on context and chance, some things in this game are always true, and therefore heavily abusable.

Every round, you are the starting player. Whenever the gun gets reloaded, you will go first. (Now this is just the case in single-player, multiplayer does this differently guaranteed.) This is excellent and gives you agency. Which was honestly the biggest shocker for me coming from a game that sells itself as horror. This means that whenever you and your opponents health is equal, you have the chance to make sure they have to waste time on playing save, while you get to play assertive.

The Dealer is dumb
The dealer is stupid, especially in the normal mode, but also has its moments in Double or Nothing. The dealer will not count Lives and Blanks in the normal mode and will absolutely waste their best items, such as the magnifying glass, on checking out bullets that you can deduce are all the same. They will randomly shoot himself at moments where they're guaranteed to kill you. They're less likely to do so in Double or Nothing, but they're still pretty bad at using their items optimally.

Items refresh when a new round starts. Whenever you or the dealer runs out of charge, all unused items are lost. Make sure to use those items, or quickly try and end a round to prevent your opponent from recovering.
Basic Strategies
First, let's discuss basic strategies. If you've played any games like poker, blackjack and the likes before, some of this you probably already know.

Count Lives/Blanks. It almost goes without saying that the most important thing you should be doing is counting what's left in the round. Whenever a bullet gets fired, odds change and so should your choices.

Take the best odds. In most cases, or when there's no items in play, play what is statistically best. If there's mores Lives than Blanks in the gun, shoot your opponent. If there's more Blanks than Lives, shoot yourself. If there's an equal number of Blanks and Lives, shoot your opponent. I'll go into detail later on why you should always shoot your opponent when it's equal.

Use your items! The items in this game are broken, but so they are for your opponent. I'll go into the items details later and how you should use them, but in general use them to get an early advantage. You want to force your opponent to play defensively as quickly as possible. The more secure advantage you get, the riskier they'll have to play to catch up.

Aim for 100% chances. If you can secure a move, it's always better than hoping for a good move and it not working out. This is especially true if you're in the lead. Items are generally the way you can do this, but sometimes also just simply through counting bullets.
Items

Magnifying Glass
The simplest item in your kit, but also one of the strongest. It checks whether the current bullet in the chamber is a Live or a Blank. Generally you want to use this in combination with a Hand Saw or an inverter. However, in certain situations you also combo it with Handcuffs. If there's for example 3 bullets in the gun, one Live and to Blanks and you now know the first bullet is a Blank, you can shoot yourself, use a Handcuff and then shoot the Dealer twice to guarantee damage, and a 50% chance that it remains your turn at the start of the next turn.


Hand Saw
Doubles the gun's damage, but you can't stack multiple knives. Always use this when you know your shot is going to land, unless the Dealer has one health or is in sudden death. Deducing a guaranteed shot you can do via counting Bullets, Magnifying Glass, Burner Phone or in rare cases combo-ing off a guaranteed blank with an Inverter. When you're behind, you might need to take an educated gamble and use the Hand Saw in hopes of crawling back. Not an ideal situation, but a 50/50 win is better than a 100% loss.


Handcuffs
Skips your opponents next turn. This would trigger on any moment you would damage yourself by shooting yourself or shooting at the Dealer. If you fire a Blank at yourself, the Handcuffs will stay in effect. Especially useful if you know there's two Lives coming up, or it's the last two bullets in the gun and there's both a Live and a Blank. Also useful if you can create a scenario for yourself where two Lives get fired after one another. Best used when there's more (possible) Lives than Blanks in the gun. Should generally be avoided when there's more Blanks than Lives, it's often better to gamble at those times and keep the Handcuffs for secure damage.


Beer
Ejects the current bullet in the chamber without firing it. Mainly used to change the odds when counting Bullets. Also sometimes it's better to eject a Live bullet without firing it, as having three or more Lives is awkward, but having Two Lives could create an opportunity to shoot the Dealer twice when used in combination with Handcuffs. Probably the hardest item to master, but also the item that could potentially give you the biggest gains. There's a lot of hypothetical scenarios you could run where using Beer could give you an edge. Trial and error is your friend.


Cigarette Pack
Restores a charge. Useless when used when full Health or at Sudden Death. Allows you to play riskier, as you can recover from a risk gone wrong. Otherwise pretty useless and only good to stall a match. You're in for a rough time if you get a bunch of these or Expired Medicine, completely limits how aggressive you can play.
Items - Double or Nothing

Adrenaline
Steals an item from an opponent and instantly use it. Strong item, even stronger when already ahead. Heavily abusable because you always start first in single player. Aim for their Magnifying Glasses, Hand Saws and Burner Phones. More secure info on you and less on the Dealer increases your odds of survival.


Burner Phone
Will reveal information about a future bullet. Does nothing when there's only one bullet left in the round. Like the Magnifying Glass, but for a later bullet. Therefore, it combos easier with Handcuffs and Beer. Also, you gain information that might change the odds on the bullet currently in the chamber. For example, if the Burner Phone reveals the last bullet is Live when you're playing in a round with 2 Blanks and a Live, it now means you don't have to waste items and you can safely shoot yourself 2 times and then fire the Live at the Dealer.


Expired Medicine
Has a 50% chance to take away a charge and a 50% chance to restore 2 charges. In all ways worse than cigarettes and should only be used as a last resort if not using a health item means game over.


Inverter
Changes the bullet in the chamber. A Live becomes a Blank and a Blank becomes a Live. Just like the Beer, a powerful item that takes some practice to get good at using. Like the Hand Saw, should only be used if you know what's in the chamber. Generally used to change Blanks into Lives to fire, but sometimes you might want to turn a Live into a Blank. This can be used to stall and get to the end of the round quicker, so you can get a bigger item advantage over the Dealer. Just with the Beer, there's a lot of hypothetical situations you could find yourself in with this item. Practice makes perfect.
Equal Blanks and Lives
I've mentioned earlier that when there's equal Blanks and Lives in the chamber, that generally you should always shoot your opponent.

So why is that? On the surface level, it seems like a 50/50 and like it shouldn't matter, but it does. (Especially if multiplayer works like I think it does, where it keeps track of whose turn it is between rounds, instead of it always being the player in single-player.) To understand this, we need to to look at all possible scenarios. First, let's assume there's only two bullets in the gun, a Live and a Blank.

1. I shoot the dealer, but it's a Blank. I get shot with a Live on the next turn. It's now my turn.
2. I shoot the dealer and it's a Live. The dealer shoots themselves with a Blank on the next turn. It's now the Dealer's turn.
3. I shoot myself and it's a Blank. I shoot the dealer with a Live on the next turn. It's now the Dealer's turn.
4. I shoot myself and it's a Live. The dealer shoots themselves with a Blank on the next turn. It's now the Dealer's turn.

There's 4 scenario's, two where I get damaged, two where the opponent gets damaged. The difference however, is in who goes first on the next volley. When you choose to shoot yourself, it will always be the Dealer's turn next, no matter if it backfires on me or not. However, shooting the Dealer has a benefit. I either get damage off and force the dealer to play more defensively, especially if I was already in the lead. On the otherhand, I get shot, but I get to play first next round, possibly gaining a massive advantage through gained items.

Tl;dr. Shooting yourself can lead in a double loss for yourself, whereas shooting the opponent gives you a powerful edge if the shot turned out to be a blank.

Even if there's still more than two bullets in the gun and equal odds, it's even more recommended to always shoot your opponent. If you think out scenarios with 4 bullets, if both players play like this, there's a high chance they both get hit once. However, if you do decide to shoot yourself and it goes wrong, you are at a much higher likelyhood to get shot twice while the opponent doesn't get hit. And shooting yourself and it working out still means the chance of you both getting hit once is pretty high.

I can't believe it's not common sense that pointing a gun on yourself is generally more harmful to yourself than pointing it at others.
Thank You
Thank you for reading this guide. Now shoot that Dealer in the face with full confidence. If you have any questions or need help with scenarios, feel free to leave a comment.
9 Comments
Rosemagwin  [author] 2 Jun @ 8:10am 
They're statistically simply WRONG
Ferrous 1 Jun @ 10:28pm 
"How to stop being a smoothbrain in buckshot roulette" is a better guide
jjjwelch 1 Jun @ 4:24pm 
uh this is what i do on the daily u ppl are just dumb
Apexecutrix 16 Apr @ 4:58pm 
My dumb brain figuring out 50/50 isn't good odds for myself. Thank you math nerd for your help:jawagrin:
totally normal dog 1 Apr @ 5:02pm 
this is underrated:papyruswacky:
moss404 15 Dec, 2024 @ 5:25pm 
nice:steamthumbsup:
TheGamer72 12 Dec, 2024 @ 4:55pm 
Lovely guide, but can you add the multiplayer items?
Bonzeranthony 5 Dec, 2024 @ 12:52pm 
Thanks Rosemagwin, this will be super helpful! But of course, experience is the best teacher.
Ld. Beth 30 Nov, 2024 @ 2:27am 
In Double or Nothing the dealer would always shoot itself when there are more blanks than lives, until they are equal then it depends on the situation like player's health or how many lives are still there. If player health is low it would trend to shoot player, if there is supposed be only one live shot it would try to use all the bullets and left the last one to the player.

So even if there are less lives to blanks, shoot to dealer is still the safest bet. The worst case in Double or Nothing is leave plenty of live shots to the dealer when it has hand saw or handcuff, or hand over control when the dealer when it has magnify glass/phone, which always means game over.